Why Donnelly's Median Home Price Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means

Search for the median home price in Donnelly, Idaho, and you will get answers that don't belong in the same conversation. One listing aggregator pegged the town's median list price at $1.15 million as of June 2026. Around the same time, an automated valuation model put the median home value at $536,338, based on a July 2026 reading. Those numbers are describing the same small town on the northeast shore of Lake Cascade, and they are almost two-and-a-half times apart.

That gap is not a typo, and it is not one source being sloppier than another. It is what happens when a town's housing stock is being pulled toward two entirely different products at the same time, by the same cause.

The Same 22.8 Acres, Two Different Stories

Donnelly is small enough that its entire housing market can be described by naming a handful of parcels. In 2026, two of them tell the whole story.

The first sits across from a brand-new marina on Lake Cascade. In February 2026, Tamarack Resort launched Phase 1 sales for Aspen Townhomes, a gated community of 60 mountain-modern residences built with Boise-based Alturas Homes. The first 16 units, ranging from 1,975 to 2,255 square feet, started at $1.5 million and came fully furnished, with delivery targeted for summer 2026. Buying one gets you eligibility for The Club at Tamarack, the resort's private membership club, plus a turnkey rental program if you want the unit working for you when you're not in it. The townhomes sit steps from the resort's new 100-slip public marina, which opened for the 2026 boating season, and from Osprey Meadows Golf Course, recently restored to its original Robert Trent Jones II design as part of a $200 million resort revitalization. Tamarack picked up a Travel + Leisure "Top Resort in the United States" award in 2025, and that momentum is exactly what's fueling demand for product like Aspen Townhomes.

The second parcel is 22.8 acres along Eld Lane, a gravel road with a single outlet onto Idaho 55. Here, Cascade developer Joe Critchfield has spent the better part of a year trying to build what he calls workforce housing. The project, known as Boulder Creek, started in December 2025 as a proposal for multi-family housing, recreational cabins, and a concert venue. By February 2026, the Donnelly City Council had approved a concept plan for 84 apartments, 14 recreational cabins, three short-term rentals, and a clubhouse. Neighbors pushed back hard, citing a traffic study that projected more than 700 vehicle trips a day on a road with no secondary access. The dispute escalated to a reconsideration request filed on behalf of 14 neighbors, including Donnelly's own mayor, who recused herself because she lives adjacent to the property. The city ordered mediation in June. By August 2026, the council approved a revised plan: 68 townhomes, 20 apartments, and 14 cabins, with Critchfield and his development partner funding the rebuild of Eld Lane itself.

"We want to be good neighbors, whether that's believed or not."

That's Critchfield, describing the pressure of building housing for the roughly 40 people he employs across his Cascade businesses while defending the project against a lawsuit threat from his own neighbors.

Why the Median Can't Hold Both Stories

Here is the part that matters if you're comparing Donnelly to McCall, Cascade, or anywhere else in Valley County: a median list price is a snapshot of what happens to be actively for sale right now, not a snapshot of the town.

When Tamarack releases 16 furnished townhomes starting at $1.5 million into a market where total active inventory is small to begin with, those units pull the median list price up hard. That's very likely what's behind the $1.15 million figure. Meanwhile, the $536,338 automated valuation reflects the broader base of existing homes across the town, including older in-town properties on private well and septic that never show up in a luxury-resort sales gallery.

Neither number is wrong. They're measuring different things. The for-sale median tells you what's on the shelf this month. The valuation model tells you what the town's housing stock has historically been worth. In most markets those two numbers move together. In Donnelly right now, they don't, because the shelf is being stocked almost entirely with resort product while the underlying town is mostly something else.

There's a second wrinkle worth naming. Much of the Boulder Creek project, and the earlier Garnet Valley development that reserved dozens of units as subsidized housing specifically to solve Tamarack's own staffing commute problem, is built as rental apartments and recreational cabins rather than individually deeded homes for sale. That means the workforce-housing tier barely shows up in a for-sale median at all. It exists, it's real inventory, and it's absorbing real demand, but it doesn't move the number buyers are searching for.

If you're pricing a Donnelly purchase off a single median number, you're not comparing apples to apples. You're comparing a furnished lakefront townhome to a 1970s in-town house to an apartment that was never meant to be sold at all.

The Rental Wrinkle That Catches Buyers Off Guard

For anyone weighing a second home or investment purchase in Donnelly, there's a compliance gap between the two tiers that's easy to miss until you're deep in a transaction.

Idaho updated its short-term rental statute this year. House Bill 583 amended Idaho Code 67-6539, effective July 1, 2026, and it limits how much a city or county can restrict short-term rentals beyond a specific list of safety measures: smoke alarms, carbon monoxide detectors, escape ladders where needed, and occupancy limits tied to building code. Cities can't ban short-term rentals outright or pile on requirements that don't apply to other residential uses.

Donnelly's own short-term rental ordinance sits inside that framework, and it has a detail that matters for older in-town properties specifically: a rental application must include proof of central water and sewer connection. Occupancy is capped at four people per bedroom up to a maximum of 12, and no short-term rental in the city is considered grandfathered, meaning every property has to apply fresh regardless of history.

Compare that to buying at Tamarack, where Aspen Townhomes come with a Rental Ready Program baked into the HOA. The resort handles marketing, booking, cleaning, and guest services, and the compliance question is somebody else's job. Buy an older Donnelly home with the intent to rent it short-term, and you're the one confirming your sewer connection, filing your own business license application, and tracking your own occupancy math against your septic capacity if you're outside city water and sewer.

Neither approach is better. They're just different transactions wearing the same town name.

What This Means If You're Actually Comparing Donnelly

If you're looking at Donnelly as one option among several in Valley County, the honest version of the comparison isn't "Donnelly's median price is X." It's closer to: Donnelly currently has three distinct products stacked in one zip code, they're moving in different directions for different reasons, and the number you see first depends entirely on which source pulled its data from which shelf.

That's useful information, not a warning sign. Tamarack's continued investment, including a March 2026 Valley County approval of a C-PACE financing program specifically to support the resort's next round of hotel and mixed-use development, tells you the top tier isn't done growing. Boulder Creek's approval after nearly a year of hearings tells you the town is actively working to keep pace with its own labor needs. Both of those forces are shaping what a Donnelly purchase looks like two or three years from now, and neither shows up in a single median price.

If you're trying to figure out which tier actually fits what you're looking for, whether that's a turnkey resort property, a legacy in-town home, or something with room to grow as Donnelly's housing mix continues to shift, that's exactly the kind of read a local agent should be able to give you before you ever put in an offer.

A Couple of Questions Worth Asking Before You Look at a Single Listing

Why do different websites show such different median prices for Donnelly? Because they're measuring different things. A for-sale median reflects whatever happens to be actively listed, which right now is disproportionately new luxury inventory from Tamarack. A valuation model reflects the broader, older housing stock across the town, much of which never appears in an active listings count at all.

Can I run a short-term rental in an older Donnelly home the same way Tamarack owners do? You can, but the compliance path is different. Tamarack's Aspen Townhomes come with a built-in Rental Ready Program handled by the resort. An older in-town home requires its own business license application to the city, proof of central water and sewer connection, and occupancy limits tied to bedroom count, none of which is automated for you the way it is inside the resort.

If you're weighing a purchase in Donnelly against other towns around Lake Cascade or McCall, the details above are exactly the kind of ground-level context that doesn't show up in a portal search. Sadie Noah has spent years working transactions across Valley County's mountain and lakefront markets, from resort-tier listings to legacy in-town homes, and can walk you through which tier actually fits your goals before you make an offer. Request a personalized market plan or property tour with Sadie Noah to get a read on Donnelly that accounts for what's actually happening on the ground, not just what a single median number suggests.